A Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit
A. N. Kuzovlev,
L. V. Ermokhina,
N. S. Melnikova,
L. B. Berikashvili,
M. Ya. Yadgarov,
K. K. Kadantseva,
N. I. Chaus,
S. N. Perekhodov,
T. S. Serkova,
V. V. Likhvantsev https://doi.org/10.21292/2078-5658-2022-19-1-6-17
Abstract
The objective: to develop a predictive model for assessing the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).
Subjects and Methods. This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of hospital mortality in patients admitted to ICU of V.P. Demikhov City Clinical Hospital from March 6 to June 3, 2020.
Results. Case histories of 403 patients were analyzed. In-hospital 30-day mortality among patients treated in ICU was 44.9% (181/403 patients). A multivariate analysis showed that significant predictors of death in patients with COVID-19 were the age of 60 years or more (adj. OR 3.84; 95% CI 1.56‒9.44, p = 0.003), COPD (adj. OR 2.35; 95% CI 1.12‒4.95, p = 0.024), peripheral artery diseases (adj. OR: 5.08; 95% CI 1.87‒13.76, p = 0.001) and CKD stage 3b and higher (adj. OR 4.58; 95% CI 2.36‒8.90, p < 0.001), LDH 300 IU/l or more (adj. OR 3.05; 95% CI 1.23‒7.58, p = 0.016), and CRP 200 mg/l or more (adj. OR 3.65; 95% CI 1.95‒6.85, p < 0.001). Predictive model quality: AUC = 0.811 [0.733‒0.874], p < 0.001.
Conclusions. A nomogram to assess the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 has been developed. It includes the assessment of age, history of COPD, CKD stage 3b and higher, peripheral artery diseases, and monitoring of LDH and CRP.
About the Authors
A. N. Kuzovlev
V. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General Reanimatology
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Artem N. Kuzovlev, Doctor of Medical Sciences, Deputy Director,
Head of the Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care of the Institute of Higher Education and Post Graduate Training
25, Build. 2, Petrovka St., Moscow, 107031
L. V. Ermokhina
V. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General Reanimatology; V. P. Demikhov City Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Lyubov V. Ermokhina, Post Graduate Student of the Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care of the Institute of Higher Education and Post Graduate Training.
25, Build. 2, Petrovka St., Moscow, 107031; 4, Shkuleva St., Moscow, 109263
N. S. Melnikova
V. P. Demikhov City Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Natalya S. Melnikova, Anesthesiologist and Emergency Physician of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Department no. 2.
4, Shkuleva St., Moscow, 109263
L. B. Berikashvili
V. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General Reanimatology
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Levan B. Berikashvili, Researcher of Laboratory of Clinical Pathophysiology of Critical States.
25, Build. 2, Petrovka St., Moscow, 107031
M. Ya. Yadgarov
V. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General Reanimatology
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Mikhail Ya. Yadgarov, Junior Researcher of Laboratory of Organ Protection in Critical States
25, Build. 2, Petrovka St., Moscow, 107031
K. K. Kadantseva
V. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General Reanimatology
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Kristina K. Kadantseva, Researcher of the Laboratory of Organ Protection in Critical States
25, Build. 2, Petrovka St., Moscow, 107031
N. I. Chaus
V. P. Demikhov City Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Nikolay I. Chaus, Candidate of Medical Sciences, Deputy Chief Physician in Anesthesiology and Intensive Care
4, Shkuleva St., Moscow, 109263
S. N. Perekhodov
V. P. Demikhov City Clinical Hospital
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergey N. Perekhodov, Doctor of Medical Sciences, Professor,
Honored Doctor of Russia, Chief Physician.
4, Shkuleva St., Moscow, 109263
T. S. Serkova
I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Tatiana S. Serkova, Student.
2, Bd. 4, Bolshaya Pirogovskaya St., Moscow, 119146
V. V. Likhvantsev
V. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General Reanimatology; I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Valeriy V. Likhvantsev, Doctor of Medical Sciences, Deputy Head.
Email: lik0704@gmail.com
25, Build. 2, Petrovka St., Moscow, 107031; 2, Bd. 4, Bolshaya Pirogovskaya St.,Moscow, 119146
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For citations:
Kuzovlev A.N., Ermokhina L.V., Melnikova N.S., Berikashvili L.B., Yadgarov M.Ya., Kadantseva K.K., Chaus N.I., Perekhodov S.N., Serkova T.S., Likhvantsev V.V. A Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit. Messenger of ANESTHESIOLOGY AND RESUSCITATION. 2022;19(1):6-17. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21292/2078-5658-2022-19-1-6-17
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